Israel's Plan B

A few days ago I wrote that one thing that is very different about the negotiations currently underway between Israel and the Palestinian Authority is that Hamas has been considerably weakened by the downfall of its Egyptian allies in the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as by Iran's and Hezbollah's current preoccupation with Syria.  There is another difference as well: Thanks in part to Hamas, Israel now has a Plan B.  

Seth Mandel speculated in Commentary a few days ago as to whether or not Israel has a Plan B, and if so, what the effect of that would be on the negotiations.  http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/08/02/doomsday-diplomacy-and-the-middle-east/#.Uf0GtRG6LYY.twitter  Since Israel's most recent incursion into Gaza, in November of 2012, Israel's Plan B has emerged.  

Prior to last November, unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, similar to what occcured in Gaza in 2005, was not widely discussed as a viable option.  This was because Israel's major population centers in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem were considered too close to the would-be West Bank border.  Watching the barrage of rockets from Gaza into southern Israel, withdrawal from the West Bank without a peace agreement was considered too dangerous.  Iron Dome, however, has changed that.  

It is thanks to Hamas that we saw how well the Iron Dome missile defense system worked.  Even the longer-range missiles that Hamas aimed at Tel Aviv were rendered ineffectual.  Now that we know that Israel can protect its major cities from a close and hostile enemy, disengagement without a peace agreement seems viable.  In December, the Jerusalem Post reported that 45% of Israelis supported unilateral withdrawal.  http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Poll-45-percent-of-Israelis-support-unilateral-withdrawal  This option was seriously considered at the Jerusalem Post conference that I attended in April of this year, and appears to have been seriously discussed at the Herzliya Conference in March (which I did not attend).  

What would such a move by Israel mean?  To start, it would mean that Israel alone would decide on the borders of the land it would cede to Palestine.  Israel could theoretically keep a presence in the Jordan Valley, and keep as many of the settlement blocs as it chose.  Jerusalem would not be up for discussion at all.  And certainly, no descendants of Palestinian "refugees" would be allowed into Israel.  

The threat of putting Israel's Plan B into action could be what finally pushed Abbas back to the table.  Either way, let's just hope he stays there.